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Nodewise Predictability in Cross-Sectional Data Does Not Outperform Mechanical Totals in Predicting Sexual Reoffending.

Assessment . 2026;33 (5) :834-844

Résumé

This study compares the predictive accuracy of sexual reoffending using dynamic risk factors' sum score (mechanical totals) and nodewise predictability, a model accounting for their interrelationships. Dynamic risk factors of North American men ( = 5,315) were measured by the STABLE-2007. The area under the curve (AUC) of both methods was determined by splitting the dataset at a [20:80] ratio, repeated over 300 iterations with random training and test samples. Mechanical totals' predictive accuracy outperformed nodewise predictability (AUC = 0.67,  = 0.04; AUC = 0.50,  = 0.03; [299] = 80.2, Cohen's  = 4.63,  

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